A High Resolution Input-Output Model to Assess the Economic Impact of Floods

The Institute of Economics will hold a seminar meeting as part of its Seminar Series on Tuesday, March 26, 2024: Jlenia Di Noia from IUSS of Pavia will present the paper “A High Resolution Input-Output Model to Assess the Economic Impact of Floods (with A. Caiani, L. Cesarini, M. Arosio and B. Monteleone)".

Abstract:

Global warming urges to find suitable methodologies for estimating economic losses associated to extreme weather events, whose frequency and intensity are projected to increase. In addition to assessing damages to physical assets, such as infrastructures, facilities, and machinery, it is crucial to evaluate the indirect effects associated to business interruptions and the temporary disruption of production chains. The paper proposes a computational inter-regional input-output framework for the economic impact assessment of river floods in Italy. The model leverages a database of geo-referenced productive plants from the ASIA local units database supplied by ISTAT enabling to match local units with Copernicus maps of inundated areas and to identify affected units and number of workers impacted by a flood event. Downtime periods are contingent on the water depth and are calibrated using HAZUS restoration periods. To offer an initial demonstration of the effectiveness of this approach, we present a specific application to the major flooding event that occurred in Emilia-Romagna in May 2023, quantifying direct and indirect economic losses resulting from business interruptions at the sectoral, regional, and national levels.

Seminar will be in Aula 2.

For online partecipation use this link.